<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners complete their weekend series with a 4:10 p.m. ET game at Safeco Field on Sunday. The last-place Blue Jays will look to win the series and put a dent in Seattle’s playoff hopes after Toronto’s 5-4 win Saturday behind an excellent start by Cuban import Yariel Rodríguez.</p>
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<p>They’ll have to handle one of the toughest pitchers in the American League to do so, however. Toronto is a +135 underdog against right-hander George Kirby and the Mariners, with the over-under total set at seven runs.</p>
<h3>Betting Toronto Blue Jays (40-49 OU, 41-48 ATS, 42-45-2 o/u)</h3>
<p>Rodríguez’s dominance was what the Blue Jays needed to give their lacklustre lineup time to wake up but to dig their way out of last place, they’ll need more consistent production from key hitters. George Springer’s two hits, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s continued production and three hits from struggling catcher Alejandro Kirk aided that project on Saturday.</p>
<p>Whether the Blue Jays will continue to try to compete with their current team or opt to pull the plug on 2024 and trade away players on expiring contracts becomes the key question in the next few weeks. Every game matters as the front office tries to crystalize the approach heading into the July 30 trade deadline. At this point, speculation that the team will trade away Guerrero or any other key cogs remains strictly in the rumour stage.</p>
<p>For the second season in a row, a lineup filled with marquee names has fallen flat, raising questions about the chemistry of the group. The Jays rank 28th in the majors with 79 home runs, 26th in runs scored and 20th with a .683 OPS. Their pitching, with a 4.34 ERA that ranks 24th, hasn’t been nearly as good as last season.</p>
<h3>Betting Seattle Mariners (49-42 OU, 39-52 ATS, 37-48-6 o/u)</h3>
<p>There will be more than the usual scrutiny when Seattle manager Scott Servais releases his lineup Sunday, as star center fielder Julio Rodríguez’s availability is in question after he left Saturday’s game with a sore right quadriceps. If Rodríguez is forced to go on the injured list, it will come at an unfortunate moment, as he was showing signs of turning around a rough first half.</p>
<p>Seattle said it was awaiting the results of a late-night MRI on Saturday. Rodriguez had played his best game of the season just two days prior, mashing a 428-foot home run, ripping a double at 113 mph and stealing third base on a headfirst slide. His overall production has dipped considerably after two All-Star seasons to launch his promising career. Rodríguez is batting .247 with a sub-par .630 OPS, with just eight home runs and 18 stolen bases.</p>
<p>Seattle’s offence hasn’t been much better than Toronto’s. It ranks 12th with 98 home runs, but leads the majors with 936 strikeouts and has a .658 OPS that ranks 28th. The Mariners’ pitching, especially the starting rotation, is elite, with a 3.55 ERA that ranks third in MLB.</p>
<h2>Probable starting pitchers</h2>
<p><strong>Toronto: RHP José Berríos (8-6, 3.63 ERA, 6.38 K/9, 1.12 WHIP)</strong></p>
<p>Speculation swirled that Berríos was dealing with an injury when he unravelled in the fifth inning of a high-scoring win vs. the Houston Astros on Tuesday. Berríos hit a batter and gave up three singles and a three-run home run in the inning, but he apparently bounced back well enough that the Jays decided to put him out there in this one. Berríos, 30, got off to a great start but has not been at his best of late, with a 5.97 ERA and eight home runs allowed in his last five starts. All signs would certainly point to fading the Jays’ erstwhile ace in this one.</p>
<p>Berríos certainly is a great competitor, but his underlying metrics point to surprisingly good results given the quality of his stuff. Both his fastball and breaking balls rank as below average and his strikeout rate is in the 19th percentile. Like the Mariners’ starter in this one, Berríos rarely beats himself with copious walks, but given his form and diminished stuff, it’s hard to have much confidence in him at the moment.</p>
<p><strong>Seattle: RHP George Kirby (7-6, 3.32 ERA, 8.60 K/9, 0.98 WHIP)</strong></p>
<p>One of the best pitchers at commanding the strike zone in the major leagues, Kirby has allowed fewer base runners per nine innings than all but six pitchers, including his teammate, Logan Gilbert. He, too, relies primarily on poor contact, but his strikeout total still ranks in the top 27 in MLB. He ran into a bit of turbulence with back-to-back rocky starts in late May, but since then has been fully in command. Kirby has gone 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA, 44 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings and held opposing lineups to a .544 OPS in his last seven starts.</p>
<p>Though he is not the hardest thrower in MLB, Kirby does much of his best work with a 96-mph four-seam fastball that ranks in the 99th percentile for run value. He has a good slider and a sinker that he throws at an identical velocity to his four-seamer. His walk rate, 2.4%, ranks in the 99th percentile.</p>
<h3>Weather</h3>
<p>It is expected to be warmer than usual in Seattle on Sunday, with first-pitch temperatures of about 32 C at first pitch, with plenty of sun and light winds wafting out to center field at about 11 km/h.</p>
<h3>MLB betting trends</h3>
<p>Toronto is 5-13 straight-up in its last 16 games, fueling the mounting speculation it will be a deadline seller.</p>
<p>Both teams rank in the bottom half of the majors when it comes to hitting overs. In fact, Seattle has exceeded the total in just 43% of its games, making it the most under-heavy team aside from the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.</p>
<p>The Mariners have found it particularly tough to score at home. Of their last 47 home games, only 15 have exceeded the total.</p>
<p>Toronto has been a strong bet on the road lately. The Jays are 24-20 in their last 44 road games ATS.</p>
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<h3>MLB player prop trends</h3>
<p>Guerrero had his 10-game hitting streak snapped on Friday with an 0-for-4 day, but he responded by going 2-for-4 with a couple of RBIs on Saturday. In his last 12 games, he’s batting .379 with six doubles and five home runs.</p>
<p>Cal Raleigh leads Seattle with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. He has odds of +135 to exceed 1.5 total bases and +160 to pick up at least one RBI.</p>
<p>Kirby is gunning for his sixth quality start in a row. If he gets it, he likely would eclipse the total set of 18.5 outs at +128.</p>
<h3>Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions</h3>
<p>The sportsbooks don’t seem to be factoring in Berríos’s recent struggles enough in the betting lines, offering the potential to fade the right-hander at solid odds. That’s particularly true if rumours that he is dealing with a nagging injury prove correct. Consider taking under 5.5 Berríos strikeouts at +105 or under 17.5 outs recorded at +110.</p>
<p>The odds here reflect Julio Rodríguez’s questionable availability, but Seattle has been playing with below-average production from its center fielder all season anyway. With Kirby on the mound, the Mariners seem like a good bet to extend their dominance over Toronto at Safeco Field. A win here would give them eight wins in the teams’ last nine games in Seattle. Consider taking the favourite here.</p>

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners complete their weekend series with a 4:10 p.m. ET game at Safeco Field on Sunday. The last-place Blue Jays will look to win the series and put a dent in Seattle’s playoff hopes after Toronto’s 5-4 win Saturday behind an excellent start by Cuban import Yariel Rodríguez.


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They’ll have to handle one of the toughest pitchers in the American League to do so, however. Toronto is a +135 underdog against right-hander George Kirby and the Mariners, with the over-under total set at seven runs.
<h3>Betting Toronto Blue Jays (40-49 OU, 41-48 ATS, 42-45-2 o/u)</h3>
Rodríguez’s dominance was what the Blue Jays needed to give their lacklustre lineup time to wake up but to dig their way out of last place, they’ll need more consistent production from key hitters. George Springer’s two hits, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s continued production and three hits from struggling catcher Alejandro Kirk aided that project on Saturday.

Whether the Blue Jays will continue to try to compete with their current team or opt to pull the plug on 2024 and trade away players on expiring contracts becomes the key question in the next few weeks. Every game matters as the front office tries to crystalize the approach heading into the July 30 trade deadline. At this point, speculation that the team will trade away Guerrero or any other key cogs remains strictly in the rumour stage.

For the second season in a row, a lineup filled with marquee names has fallen flat, raising questions about the chemistry of the group. The Jays rank 28th in the majors with 79 home runs, 26th in runs scored and 20th with a .683 OPS. Their pitching, with a 4.34 ERA that ranks 24th, hasn’t been nearly as good as last season.
<h3>Betting Seattle Mariners (49-42 OU, 39-52 ATS, 37-48-6 o/u)</h3>
There will be more than the usual scrutiny when Seattle manager Scott Servais releases his lineup Sunday, as star center fielder Julio Rodríguez’s availability is in question after he left Saturday’s game with a sore right quadriceps. If Rodríguez is forced to go on the injured list, it will come at an unfortunate moment, as he was showing signs of turning around a rough first half.

Seattle said it was awaiting the results of a late-night MRI on Saturday. Rodriguez had played his best game of the season just two days prior, mashing a 428-foot home run, ripping a double at 113 mph and stealing third base on a headfirst slide. His overall production has dipped considerably after two All-Star seasons to launch his promising career. Rodríguez is batting .247 with a sub-par .630 OPS, with just eight home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Seattle’s offence hasn’t been much better than Toronto’s. It ranks 12th with 98 home runs, but leads the majors with 936 strikeouts and has a .658 OPS that ranks 28th. The Mariners’ pitching, especially the starting rotation, is elite, with a 3.55 ERA that ranks third in MLB.
<h2>Probable starting pitchers</h2>
<strong>Toronto: RHP José Berríos (8-6, 3.63 ERA, 6.38 K/9, 1.12 WHIP)</strong>

Speculation swirled that Berríos was dealing with an injury when he unravelled in the fifth inning of a high-scoring win vs. the Houston Astros on Tuesday. Berríos hit a batter and gave up three singles and a three-run home run in the inning, but he apparently bounced back well enough that the Jays decided to put him out there in this one. Berríos, 30, got off to a great start but has not been at his best of late, with a 5.97 ERA and eight home runs allowed in his last five starts. All signs would certainly point to fading the Jays’ erstwhile ace in this one.

Berríos certainly is a great competitor, but his underlying metrics point to surprisingly good results given the quality of his stuff. Both his fastball and breaking balls rank as below average and his strikeout rate is in the 19th percentile. Like the Mariners’ starter in this one, Berríos rarely beats himself with copious walks, but given his form and diminished stuff, it’s hard to have much confidence in him at the moment.

<strong>Seattle: RHP George Kirby (7-6, 3.32 ERA, 8.60 K/9, 0.98 WHIP)</strong>

One of the best pitchers at commanding the strike zone in the major leagues, Kirby has allowed fewer base runners per nine innings than all but six pitchers, including his teammate, Logan Gilbert. He, too, relies primarily on poor contact, but his strikeout total still ranks in the top 27 in MLB. He ran into a bit of turbulence with back-to-back rocky starts in late May, but since then has been fully in command. Kirby has gone 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA, 44 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings and held opposing lineups to a .544 OPS in his last seven starts.

Though he is not the hardest thrower in MLB, Kirby does much of his best work with a 96-mph four-seam fastball that ranks in the 99th percentile for run value. He has a good slider and a sinker that he throws at an identical velocity to his four-seamer. His walk rate, 2.4%, ranks in the 99th percentile.
<h3>Weather</h3>
It is expected to be warmer than usual in Seattle on Sunday, with first-pitch temperatures of about 32 C at first pitch, with plenty of sun and light winds wafting out to center field at about 11 km/h.
<h3>MLB betting trends</h3>
Toronto is 5-13 straight-up in its last 16 games, fueling the mounting speculation it will be a deadline seller.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the majors when it comes to hitting overs. In fact, Seattle has exceeded the total in just 43% of its games, making it the most under-heavy team aside from the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.

The Mariners have found it particularly tough to score at home. Of their last 47 home games, only 15 have exceeded the total.

Toronto has been a strong bet on the road lately. The Jays are 24-20 in their last 44 road games ATS.
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<h3>MLB player prop trends</h3>
Guerrero had his 10-game hitting streak snapped on Friday with an 0-for-4 day, but he responded by going 2-for-4 with a couple of RBIs on Saturday. In his last 12 games, he’s batting .379 with six doubles and five home runs.

Cal Raleigh leads Seattle with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. He has odds of +135 to exceed 1.5 total bases and +160 to pick up at least one RBI.

Kirby is gunning for his sixth quality start in a row. If he gets it, he likely would eclipse the total set of 18.5 outs at +128.
<h3>Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions</h3>
The sportsbooks don’t seem to be factoring in Berríos’s recent struggles enough in the betting lines, offering the potential to fade the right-hander at solid odds. That’s particularly true if rumours that he is dealing with a nagging injury prove correct. Consider taking under 5.5 Berríos strikeouts at +105 or under 17.5 outs recorded at +110.

The odds here reflect Julio Rodríguez’s questionable availability, but Seattle has been playing with below-average production from its center fielder all season anyway. With Kirby on the mound, the Mariners seem like a good bet to extend their dominance over Toronto at Safeco Field. A win here would give them eight wins in the teams’ last nine games in Seattle. Consider taking the favourite here.

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