Time is running out for the Toronto Blue Jays to improve next season&#8217;s starting rotation, as pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training in five weeks. 
Day by day, week by week, the organization has watched several potential targets come off the board in free agency while its staff remains without a meaningful addition. Given the uncertain depth beyond the club&#8217;s starting five, it&#8217;ll be prudent for this franchise to land an impact starter over these next few weeks. However, achieving that feat will be far more challenging with few high-upside hurlers still available.
There are a few worth mentioning, though, one of which the Blue Jays are quite familiar with &#8212; longtime Boston Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta. They&#8217;ve gone toe-to-toe with the Victoria, B.C., native countless times since he arrived to the AL East during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, with the 31-year-old conquering many of those matchups since &#8217;23.
Toronto&#8217;s familiarity with Pivetta isn&#8217;t the only quality that makes him an intriguing target (but it certainly helps). It&#8217;s that he&#8217;s practically been a two-win pitcher during each of the previous two seasons. He was worth 2.0 fWAR in almost 150 innings last season and came within one decimal point of reaching that mark the season prior.
For a Blue Jays rotation currently slated to feature Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis and one of Yariel Rodríguez or Jake Bloss in 2025, adding Pivetta to the mix would upgrade the ceiling of that unit and, even at 32 next season, insert an arm still young enough to hold off Father Time for a few more years amongst an aging staff.
His inclusion would also bring plenty of swing-and-miss to Toronto&#8217;s rotation, considering <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=1&amp;month=0&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2024&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=200&amp;sortcol=6&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he owns the fifth-highest strikeout rate (30 per cent)</a> among major league pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2023 &#8212; which this team has witnessed firsthand on numerous occasions, including his 10-strikeout performance against them last season.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Nick Pivetta&#8217;s 10Ks. <a href="https://t.co/MR3GnS7dRZ">pic.twitter.com/MR3GnS7dRZ</a>
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1828158889814081538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2024</a></blockquote>
Pivetta is likely on the Blue Jays&#8217; radar for all those reasons listed above. But one element that separates him from other available free-agent starters such as Jack Flaherty and Andrew Heaney is he&#8217;s tied to a $21.05-million qualifying offer, which he rejected from the Red Sox earlier this off-season.
Signing Pivetta would cause Toronto to forfeit its second-round selection in the 2025 draft and $500,000 from its international signing bonus pool for the &#8217;26 signing period. Those penalties shouldn&#8217;t heavily impact the organization&#8217;s pursuit of the longtime AL East foe by themselves. Acquiring another qualified free agent &#8212; like Anthony Santander or Alex Bregman, for example &#8212; might do just that, though.
The Blue Jays would lose their second and third-round picks in next summer&#8217;s draft and $1 million in international signing bonus funds for signing two qualified free agents during the same off-season. So, landing Pivetta and a marquee position player such as Santander or Bregman would require a significant investment &#8212; from an acquisition and opportunity cost standpoint.
Toronto can&#8217;t afford to exit this winter without raising the ceiling of next season&#8217;s roster, and acquiring at least two of those three would certainly put them on the right track toward that goal. But at what cost? They need to thread the needle of their roster retool, though they must also take advantage of their draft position to improve a bottom-third farm system.
Despite falling to eighth in last month&#8217;s lottery draft, the Blue Jays still have an opportunity to augment their prospect pool with a fresh wave of high-end talent. But that&#8217;ll become much tougher if they forfeit their second and third-highest selections, meaning they wouldn&#8217;t pick again until the fourth round at 113th overall &#8212; probably a few spots lower than that once draft compensation picks are awarded.
Losing $1 million in spending would also deal a significant blow to the franchise&#8217;s pursuits in international free agency. For reference, they&#8217;re scheduled to feature approximately $6.2 million in their pool for the 2025 signing period, which begins on Jan. 15. Teams, of course, can also add to their bonus pools by acquiring amounts via trade (up to a maximum of $250,000 per deal).
There&#8217;s the other side to that argument, too. It&#8217;d be quite the indictment on Toronto&#8217;s front office if the fear of losing valuable draft capital and international bonus pool money directly prevented them from signing two qualified free agents. It&#8217;s risky, sure, but so is not taking the steps necessary to improve a roster that currently presents as a fringe AL wild-card contender.
Plus, if the Blue Jays miss the playoffs in 2025, don&#8217;t extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and both depart in free agency next off-season, they&#8217;ll likely have plenty of future opportunities to draft in the top 10 in the inevitable rebuild they&#8217;d soon enter.
Shifting to a more positive note, perhaps management could enjoy the best of both worlds &#8212; raise the ceiling of next season&#8217;s starting rotation without being subject to any qualifying offer penalties.
In that scenario, signing Flaherty would be the best possible outcome, albeit one that&#8217;d likely impact Toronto&#8217;s financial flexibility to improve its lineup with a marquee free agent. And it&#8217;d probably necessitate trading Bassitt, who&#8217;s owed $22 million in 2025 during the final season of his three-year, $63-million contract. But that may be necessary, anyway.
Alternatively, Heaney could be another potential non-qualified target, one who&#8217;d surely be far more cost-effective than Pivetta and Flaherty. The left-hander is also someone the franchise has previously pursued multiple times, only to come up empty, and he&#8217;s almost certainly received some level of interest from them again this winter.
The 33-year-old, who&#8217;ll turn 34 next June, features the lowest ceiling of the three. Interestingly, though, he and Pivetta have performed very similarly over the past two seasons, making the two close comparables heading into 2025.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 23px"></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">IP</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">ERA</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">FIP</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">K%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">BB%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">OPP AVG</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">fWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">Nick Pivetta</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">288.1</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">4.09</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">4.01</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">30%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">7.3%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">.219</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 23px;text-align: center">3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 47px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">Andrew Heaney</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">307.1</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">4.22</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">4.34</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">23.2%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">7.6%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">.249</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 47px;text-align: center">3.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Pivetta, of course, offers more swing-and-miss than Heaney &#8212; and by a considerable margin. However, each has effectively limited free passes and produced nearly identical wins above replacement ratings since 2023. Both can also provide innings as a starter or bulk reliever, too.
One advantage to Heaney, though, is he hasn&#8217;t been as susceptible to home runs as Pivetta during this span. Over the last two seasons, the former Texas Rangers hurler has registered a 1.35 HR/9 and 11.9-per-cent HR/FB rate, while his counterpart has posted the ninth-highest HR/FB rate (15.4 per cent) and the 13th-highest HR/9 (1.59) among qualified big league pitchers.
Thus, the Blue Jays would have to weigh between adding more strikeouts to their pitching staff, accompanied by an increased risk of home runs allowed, or balancing the need for swing-and-miss with someone who&#8217;s avoided barrels more consistently in recent seasons &#8212; albeit still at a below-average rate.
In the end, choosing Pivetta or Heaney could be decided by their respective price points. With the former being two years younger, he&#8217;ll almost certainly command more term, whereas the latter may opt for a one-year deal with an option for 2026.
But as much as Toronto needs to supplement its starting rotation with an impact starter, there&#8217;s far more urgency to do the same on the position-player front. As such, any notable pitching acquisition may have to wait until the offence is addressed.

Time is running out for the Toronto Blue Jays to improve next season's starting rotation, as pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training in five weeks. 

Day by day, week by week, the organization has watched several potential targets come off the board in free agency while its staff remains without a meaningful addition. Given the uncertain depth beyond the club's starting five, it'll be prudent for this franchise to land an impact starter over these next few weeks. However, achieving that feat will be far more challenging with few high-upside hurlers still available.

There are a few worth mentioning, though, one of which the Blue Jays are quite familiar with -- longtime Boston Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta. They've gone toe-to-toe with the Victoria, B.C., native countless times since he arrived to the AL East during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, with the 31-year-old conquering many of those matchups since '23.

Toronto's familiarity with Pivetta isn't the only quality that makes him an intriguing target (but it certainly helps). It's that he's practically been a two-win pitcher during each of the previous two seasons. He was worth 2.0 fWAR in almost 150 innings last season and came within one decimal point of reaching that mark the season prior.

For a Blue Jays rotation currently slated to feature Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis and one of Yariel Rodríguez or Jake Bloss in 2025, adding Pivetta to the mix would upgrade the ceiling of that unit and, even at 32 next season, insert an arm still young enough to hold off Father Time for a few more years amongst an aging staff.

His inclusion would also bring plenty of swing-and-miss to Toronto's rotation, considering <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=1&amp;month=0&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2024&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=200&amp;sortcol=6&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he owns the fifth-highest strikeout rate (30 per cent)</a> among major league pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2023 -- which this team has witnessed firsthand on numerous occasions, including his 10-strikeout performance against them last season.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Nick Pivetta's 10Ks. <a href="https://t.co/MR3GnS7dRZ">pic.twitter.com/MR3GnS7dRZ</a>
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1828158889814081538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2024</a></blockquote>
Pivetta is likely on the Blue Jays' radar for all those reasons listed above. But one element that separates him from other available free-agent starters such as Jack Flaherty and Andrew Heaney is he's tied to a $21.05-million qualifying offer, which he rejected from the Red Sox earlier this off-season.

Signing Pivetta would cause Toronto to forfeit its second-round selection in the 2025 draft and $500,000 from its international signing bonus pool for the '26 signing period. Those penalties shouldn't heavily impact the organization's pursuit of the longtime AL East foe by themselves. Acquiring another qualified free agent -- like Anthony Santander or Alex Bregman, for example -- might do just that, though.

The Blue Jays would lose their second and third-round picks in next summer's draft and $1 million in international signing bonus funds for signing two qualified free agents during the same off-season. So, landing Pivetta and a marquee position player such as Santander or Bregman would require a significant investment -- from an acquisition and opportunity cost standpoint.

Toronto can't afford to exit this winter without raising the ceiling of next season's roster, and acquiring at least two of those three would certainly put them on the right track toward that goal. But at what cost? They need to thread the needle of their roster retool, though they must also take advantage of their draft position to improve a bottom-third farm system.

Despite falling to eighth in last month's lottery draft, the Blue Jays still have an opportunity to augment their prospect pool with a fresh wave of high-end talent. But that'll become much tougher if they forfeit their second and third-highest selections, meaning they wouldn't pick again until the fourth round at 113th overall -- probably a few spots lower than that once draft compensation picks are awarded.

Losing $1 million in spending would also deal a significant blow to the franchise's pursuits in international free agency. For reference, they're scheduled to feature approximately $6.2 million in their pool for the 2025 signing period, which begins on Jan. 15. Teams, of course, can also add to their bonus pools by acquiring amounts via trade (up to a maximum of $250,000 per deal).

There's the other side to that argument, too. It'd be quite the indictment on Toronto's front office if the fear of losing valuable draft capital and international bonus pool money directly prevented them from signing two qualified free agents. It's risky, sure, but so is not taking the steps necessary to improve a roster that currently presents as a fringe AL wild-card contender.

Plus, if the Blue Jays miss the playoffs in 2025, don't extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and both depart in free agency next off-season, they'll likely have plenty of future opportunities to draft in the top 10 in the inevitable rebuild they'd soon enter.

Shifting to a more positive note, perhaps management could enjoy the best of both worlds -- raise the ceiling of next season's starting rotation without being subject to any qualifying offer penalties.

In that scenario, signing Flaherty would be the best possible outcome, albeit one that'd likely impact Toronto's financial flexibility to improve its lineup with a marquee free agent. And it'd probably necessitate trading Bassitt, who's owed $22 million in 2025 during the final season of his three-year, $63-million contract. But that may be necessary, anyway.

Alternatively, Heaney could be another potential non-qualified target, one who'd surely be far more cost-effective than Pivetta and Flaherty. The left-hander is also someone the franchise has previously pursued multiple times, only to come up empty, and he's almost certainly received some level of interest from them again this winter.

The 33-year-old, who'll turn 34 next June, features the lowest ceiling of the three. Interestingly, though, he and Pivetta have performed very similarly over the past two seasons, making the two close comparables heading into 2025.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 23px"></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">IP</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">ERA</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">FIP</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">K%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">BB%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">OPP AVG</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">fWAR</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">Nick Pivetta</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">288.1</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">4.09</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">4.01</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">30%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">7.3%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 23px">.219</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 23px;text-align: center">3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 47px">
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">Andrew Heaney</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">307.1</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">4.22</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">4.34</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">23.2%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">7.6%</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;text-align: center;height: 47px">.249</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;height: 47px;text-align: center">3.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Pivetta, of course, offers more swing-and-miss than Heaney -- and by a considerable margin. However, each has effectively limited free passes and produced nearly identical wins above replacement ratings since 2023. Both can also provide innings as a starter or bulk reliever, too.

One advantage to Heaney, though, is he hasn't been as susceptible to home runs as Pivetta during this span. Over the last two seasons, the former Texas Rangers hurler has registered a 1.35 HR/9 and 11.9-per-cent HR/FB rate, while his counterpart has posted the ninth-highest HR/FB rate (15.4 per cent) and the 13th-highest HR/9 (1.59) among qualified big league pitchers.

Thus, the Blue Jays would have to weigh between adding more strikeouts to their pitching staff, accompanied by an increased risk of home runs allowed, or balancing the need for swing-and-miss with someone who's avoided barrels more consistently in recent seasons -- albeit still at a below-average rate.

In the end, choosing Pivetta or Heaney could be decided by their respective price points. With the former being two years younger, he'll almost certainly command more term, whereas the latter may opt for a one-year deal with an option for 2026.

But as much as Toronto needs to supplement its starting rotation with an impact starter, there's far more urgency to do the same on the position-player front. As such, any notable pitching acquisition may have to wait until the offence is addressed.

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