Last season, the Toronto Blue Jays played in what was potentially the last Opening Day at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays (at the time).

The game got off to a slow start for the Jays, as they were held to just one run through five innings, courtesy of a George Springer solo home run in the top of the fourth inning.

Zach Eflin was shoving on the mound for the Rays, but a massive five-run sixth inning headlined by a 450-foot blast from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as well as a Cavan Biggio solo shot, forced the ace out of the game. Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, and Kevin Kiermaier also got into the fun wit singles of their own, while Daulton Varsho (walk) and Justin Turner (hit by pitch) also found ways to get on base.

This season, the Jays hope to recreate that same success as they face Eflin for a second straight opening day game, except this time, the right-hander will be throwing for the divisional rival Baltimore Orioles.

During that 2024 start, Eflin threw only 55 pitches as he ambushed hitters and got ahead in counts early. The Jays figured that out and began swinging early in response. Of their four RBIs against the starter that game, three of them came on the first or second pitch of the at-bat. Over the past five seasons combined, Eflin has issued less than 100 walks (94 total), making it necessary for hitters to swing the bat early and often.

The other piece of the puzzle is the movement of his pitches. With his sinker, cutter, sweeper, and curveball mix, hitters rarely see a pitch without some sort of horizontal movement. Of course, free-swinging while accounting for that movement is a challenge, to say the least.

Last Opening Day, his pitches uncharacteristically lost a lot of their break entering the big sixth inning. That was something that the pitcher admitted to MLB.com’s Adam Berry: “I felt good for five innings and kind of lost it there in the sixth, and they really capitalized on every mistake I made.”

It may not be something that the Jays can count on entering this game, but it’s something to keep in mind at the very least. As with any other game, a key part will be how well the hitters can recognize what is and isn’t working for the pitcher.

Interestingly, Eflin has played worse on the road throughout his career, with a 4.91 ERA compared to a 3.42 ERA at home. Toronto has also historically crushed him, hitting .500 (!) against him through 45.2 innings. If that trend continues, expect to see a barrage of hits during this season opener.